Field Note #2 on Investing in Technology

Field Note #2 on Investing in Technology

Assessing Feasibility Ahead of Roadmaps and Milestones

After the pitch and the first grounding conversation, attention shifts almost automatically toward plans.

Roadmaps appear. Milestones give structure to ambition. Hiring plans and delivery sequences translate vision into time. The discussion becomes forward-looking and concrete.

This is the moment where a subtle but important transition occurs.

The pitch explored what could be done. Feasibility examines what can be built, and how.

Before roadmaps harden into expectations, three areas tend to reward careful attention.

1. Understanding What Exists Today

Every roadmap extends from a present state.

What matters at this stage is not how the system is described, but how it behaves today. Which components are operational. Which have been tested under realistic conditions. Which remain partial, simulated, or dependent on future integration.

In practice, clarity here often reshapes perception. A system that is conceptually complete may still rely on unexercised assumptions. Conversely, a prototype that has encountered real constraints may already contain valuable maturity.

The insight lies in distinguishing between demonstrated capability and projected capability. When that distinction is visible, the rest of the discussion gains proportion.

2. Seeing Where Complexity Concentrates

Feasibility rarely hinges on the number of features planned. It is shaped by where technical complexity concentrates within the architecture.

Certain design decisions govern scalability. Certain dependencies quietly dictate sequencing. Certain integration points determine whether future iterations compound smoothly or accumulate friction.

When execution becomes the reference frame, attention naturally turns to these structural points. How does the current architecture behave under increased load? Where are performance limits likely to emerge? Which external systems or internal components anchor progress?

These questions do not diminish ambition. They reveal the conditions under which ambition can be delivered.

3. Reading Roadmaps Through the Lens of Effort

With the present baseline clarified and structural constraints visible, the roadmap itself can be read differently.

Milestones begin to reflect effort rather than aspiration. Unknowns become sequenced rather than assumed away. Timelines acquire meaning because the work behind them well framed and better understood.

At this stage, feasibility assessment brings particular value. It does not attempt to answer every technical question. Instead, it clarifies what is known, what remains uncertain, and how those uncertainties relate to time, capital, and team capability.

When this work is done before commitments deepen, decisions retain flexibility. Expectations align with the actual shape of the system. Valuation discussions rest on technical substance rather than on projected trajectories alone.

In capital intensive fields, feasibility studies routinely precede significant allocation of resources. As deep technology investments grow in complexity and consequence, the same discipline offers clarity without slowing momentum.

Once feasibility is examined with execution as the reference frame, roadmaps become credible instruments. From there, attention can turn naturally to another recurring observation: where do time and cost truly accumulate as systems encounter real constraints?